There have been about 10 recessions after 1950. While observing the recent two, each one started after a trigger. 2008 - Mortgage Crisis and 1997 - dot com.
I understand that a recession is not a result of an isolated event. But does every recession necessarily start with some big shock followed by snowball effect? If so, are there educated guesses on what could potentially lead to the next one? (like cryptocurrencies or Carl Icahn's recent warning on index funds?)
According to your numbers, twenty percent of recessions started with a shock/trigger. That's nowhere close to even "majority", much less "every recession".
Remember that the 2008 recession was caused by the mortgage crisis, and the lack of liquidity for loans.
The interest rate hikes will slow the economy down a bit, and bored "journalists" hunting for web site page hits will splash headlines like "Is a Recession coming?". The rate hikes will also take some of the air out of the stock market.
Just remember: markets fall as a reaction to something.
