My thinking this: if I don't use IRA, Roth IRA, or 401k money between the age of 62 and 70, but just let it grow, then let's say, if it was $500k at age 62, then if I am lucky to get 10% return per year, that money will grow to $1.07 million at age 70.
And it can be tax free for as long as the money is in the Roth IRA or Roth 401k, as far as I know. So at 10%, that money will grow to $2.78 million at age 80, and $7.2 million at age 90.
However, at the current expense level, we may spend $40k - $50k per year as expenses, and that'd mean we may deplete that money sooner or later. (like removing one egg from a basket of 100 eggs. It will sooner or later be an empty basket).
What's more, if the stock investments in the Roth IRA or 401k has some kind of hiccups and need 12 or 15 years to recover, then according to this question, if we withdraw money at age 62, we have only $2200 per month, versus if we do it at age 70, we will have $3800 per month, which is more adequate for living expenses.
So my thinking is, between the age of 62 and 70, if we can use some of our IRA, Roth IRA, and 401k money, and wait till we get $3800, then we are in general fine even we live to age 95 or 98, or 102, and we don't have to worry of the "empty basket" situation. Is this in general correct?
(However, I noticed if we spend $40k per year from age 62 to 70, that'd mean spending $320k, and that'd make our $500k become $180k only, which is a much smaller base for compounding for the future).
