My language exchange partner lives in Russia and plans to sell his apartment and use the money to buy a new one. For some technical and legal reasons specific to his case, the two transactions have to be at least about a week apart. This means he will need to keep a large sum of money, around US$150,000, in Russian roubles in a bank for at least about a week.
I've warned him that Russian rouble is a volatile currency and has experienced sudden collapses in the past, but he says he has no choice. If the rouble were to suddenly collapse by, say, 30% between the two transactions, he would lose that same percentage of the value. Furthermore, a sudden collapse could freeze the real estate market in Russia until the rouble stabilizes — and it could lose even more value by then.
Question: What factors should he monitor to pick the right week for the transactions? News, stock exchange indexes, rouble exchange rates, oil prices? How can he assess the risk of a particular week in advance? How would you choose the best week for the transactions to minimize the risk of a sudden rouble collapse if you had no other choice?
Ideally, I would like an explanation using the next week (21–27 Oct 2024) as an example to illustrate the rouble collapse risk assessment.
